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Landed cost2027 · Hot-rolled coil · Plant 3

Delivered steel costs.

Varde · €782/t · €41/t below Nordstahl

Year
Import quota at arrival
Supplier emissions data
EU carbon price €89/t · Reuters poll, Jul 2026
SteelCarbon (ETS or CBAM)Out-of-quota dutyFreight
€0€400€800€1,200€1,600
€230/t

What verified emissions data is worth on the Indian offer in 2027. Without it, CBAM uses the default value plus a 20% mark-up.

€293/t

The 50% duty on Indian coil once the quota runs out. Q4 2026 quotas sold out within days.

€144 vs €0

Carbon per tonne in 2030 for Nordstahl’s blast furnace vs Varde’s direct reduction, as free allowances phase out.

Bollard

Fictional scenario · Public market data: 9 Oct 2026, 11:24